It seems like the automotive world has stopped for a coffee break, when it comes to plug-in vehicles. As I’ve mentioned several times before, Bolt EV inventory has been difficult to obtain, even though demand remains strong. Of course, you are all aware that the Volt has been discontinued, with the last ones rolling of the assembly lines next month.
Although the industry has been frantically announcing new EVs & plug-in hybrids from Ford, VW, Toyota and many more, it seems like these won’t actually become available until 2020, at the earliest.
It makes me wonder what is actually going on. GM consistently says it sees an all-electric future for transportation. However, new models are promised by 2023. GM produced the most popular plug-in hybrid of all time (in cumulative sales, since launch) and discontinued it.
The Trump administration has talked about lessening the CAFE standards that have been driving high mileage-capable vehicles. It has also discussed trying to end California’s ability to set its own air pollution standard for vehicles sold in that state (and the other ten CARB states). Gasoline is at a very low price and has stayed below $3 per gallon, since October 2014. Surely, the manufacturers are looking at these trends, trying to find the right way forward. For those of us that believe global climate change is happening now and may reach a tipping point, beyond which mankind cannot recover in a relatively short number of years, this pause is concerning.
Let’s hope all the manufacturer’s announcements are more than smoke and mirrors…
Tesla and Chinese companies will dominate the EV market. American and other legacy car makers couldn’t give up their fat profit margins in order to make a timely transition, thanks to Wall Street, even though their greed is threatening life on the planet.
“In the world’s largest auto market, China, total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales declined in 2018 relative to 2017. This was the first year-on-year drop since 1992. Yet, in this shrinking overall auto market, EV sales (including BEVs and PHEVs) almost doubled in volume to 1.1 million, from 600,000 in 2017.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/16/fossil-vehicle-sales-are-officially-now-decreasing-in-china-europe-us/
American capitalism as a whole is in decline.
That’s been my fear: https://www.theev-angelist.com/giving-americas-future-to-china/
The first two Chinese EVs coming to the U.S., made by Kandi (one looks like a sure winner):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZ55e5mSQQ4&index=5&list=LLx0quQVCuvZiP-nSZoemF7w&t=0s
There’s a 60 Minutes segment coming up about Chinese EV car makers. There are 100 (!) EV car manufacturers in China, and many are planning to sell worldwide including here in the USA. One Chinese CEO will show off his “Tesla killer.”
While Trump has concentrated on reviving dying industries like coal mining, China has concentrated on developing the industries of the future like electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and gene modification (yes, designing smarter people).
Tell the boss to get a Chinese EV franchise (or two, or three). (USA headquarters for Kandi is already in Arlington of all places.)
Oops, I meant Garland:
http://www.kandiev.com/contact/
Oops, USA headquarters for Kandi is in Garland, not Arlington: 3101 W Miller Rd, Garland, TX 75041
The world would have been better off if the government, i.e. we the people, had kept the stock in GM, actually turning GM into “government motors.” It could have given the finger to Wall Street and dived headlong into plug-ins, spreading the Volt technology across all existing product lines, while simultaneously developing all new all electric vehicle lines and aggressively advertising them.
If there is another bail out, that is what should happen.
The following post on Cleantechnica predicts a major recession, first in the auto industry and then in the general economy, because a lot of people will in a few years decide that they want an electric car not a fossil fuel car, but the industry won’t be able to satisfy their demand. Consequently, these people will stop buying cars until they can buy the EVs they want.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/
“[The yellow line] is the size of the car market. The drop is as severe as in 2008, when GM and Chrysler went under and others were saved by bailouts, soft credit, and cash-for-clunkers programs. This time, stimulating demand or providing incentives for buying a car won’t help. It is not a scared public not wanting to spent the money. It is carmakers not having the product for which there is demand. [i.e. EVs]
“In an ideal situation, the yellow line would have followed the grey line. That would be the case when the drop in demand for FFVs was compensated by sales of BEVs. For that to happen, though, the blue line has to move to the left — carmakers have to start sooner and prepare for more models in higher volumes.
“It means we are stuck with the yellow line showing a dip. The nightmare is that it is the car industry falling off a steep cliff. This industry employs tens of millions of people directly and hundreds of millions of people are dependent on the economic activity of those tens of millions.
“This yellow line is a big economic worldwide recession. Perhaps only China will escape the worst of it. China is forcing the local car industry to lead the transition, perhaps just enough to have capacity when demand drastically swaps from mainly FFV to mostly BEV.”
We will really need that Green New Deal then.
The cleantechnica.com article is a much more in-depth study of something I wrote about last March: https://www.theev-angelist.com/i-await-its-arrival-with-bait-like-breath/