It has been five years since the introduction of the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf. Can you believe it???
In December 2015, every plug-in market I track but two, had sales volume higher than the previous month (probably due to the end of the tax year and the impending income taxes):
- Chevy Volt: UP 7% (2,114 vs. 1,980)
- Nissan Leaf: UP 28% (1,347 vs. 1,054)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 50% (22 vs. 44)
- Cadillac ELR: UP 101% (135 vs. 67)
- BMW i3: UP 97% (1,422 vs. 723)
- BMW i8: UP 456% (656 vs. 118)
- Ford Fusion Energi: UP 12% (1,058 vs. 944)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 8% (579 vs. 639)
In December, the price of gasoline averaged only $2.01 in the U.S. This is the lowest average price, since I began tracking it five years ago. Will the low price of gas inhibit the sales of plug-in vehicles? Yes, I think it will, to newbies. However, I still believe most of us who’ve moved to a plug-in vehicle will not be going back to a purely gasoline-driven vehicles. It’s about the fun of driving, not necessarily saving money, for us old-timers.
The 2016 Chevy Volt had another good month, posting 2,114 units sold, which was the tenth best monthly sales total ever and the highest we’ve seen since August 2014. I expected higher Volt sales, but it is currently only available in 11 states, so that (plus the price of gasoline) may be inhibiting sales.
The Nissan Leaf experienced a 28% increase, compared to the previous month, which is the best the Leaf has done in five months.
The only drop in sales was of the plug-in Prius. I expect this to be a very low-selling vehicle, until Toyota gets it a bigger battery pack and increased electric range.
BMW had a very good Christmas, at least as far as monthly sales increases goes. The i3 was up 97% and the i8 a staggering 456%! I do not expect this trend to continue, as both vehicles average well below the December figures.
As usual, I am awaiting Ford’s sales results and will update this post when they are available.
The adoption curves, in the lower graph, are a bigger concern to me each month. The Volt and Leaf adoption curves continue to diverge from the original Prius’ curve more every month.
December traffic at my dealership was usual: for the first 24 days, it was dead, then all hell broke loose and people started buying cars. At the beginning of 2015, after I’d qualified for General Motors Mark of Excellence, in my first year of auto sales, I set a goal of 100 vehicles for 2015. I hit my goal on January 2nd (GM’s quarter ended on January 4th) and added two more on the last day of the quarter. In the process, I have qualified for General Motors Mark of Excellence again. I am grateful to my customers and my dealership for helping me attain this goal. Now, I’ve got to think of this year’s goals…
Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, were almost all up, with the exception of the Leaf, Prius and C-Max Energi. The Prius’ performance may as well be thought of as a death watch. Every month of 2015, showed a calamitous drop from the same month a year prior. On the other hand, the Leaf is about to get an update, including improved electric range, so its sales slump may be due to the iPhone effect I’ve mentioned before. Both the BMW offerings were substantially higher than a year ago, with the i8 increasing a whopping 315%! Both BMW figures were well above normal average sales, so I believe the large increases are primarily due to end-of-year purchases for income tax reasons.
- Chevy Volt: UP 42% (2,114 vs. 1,490)
- Nissan Leaf: DOWN 57% (1,347 vs. 3,102)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 96% (22 vs. 492) ***oh, the humanity!
- Cadillac ELR: UP 14% (135 vs. 118)
- BMW i3: UP 40% (1,422 vs. 1,013)
- BMW i8: UP 315% (656 vs. 158) ***somebody had a nice Christmas…
- Ford Fusion Energi: UP 34% (1,058 vs. 789)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 12% (579 vs. 659)
Looking forward, the 2017 Volt begins production in less than a month and will be available in all 50 states. Once that happens, we should see even more increases in sales volume. In fact, the blog, “Green Car Reports” just named the 2016 Volt, the “Best Car to Buy.” By December, we should begin seeing the Chevy Bolt start showing up in showrooms. The 200 mile range has been a holy grail of EVs and, of the three companies that have announced plans to build a pure EV with that range (Chevrolet, Nissan and Tesla Motors), it appears Chevrolet will be the first to market with one. That has “game changer” written all over it.
