February 2015 Sales Numbers

As I’ve been expecting for some time now, the Nissan Leaf has surpassed the Chevy Volt in total U.S. sales since inception. Nissan has sold 74,861 Leafs since December 2010, while General Motors, whose Volt sales have languished lately, sold 74,592 over the same time period. That’s a difference of 269 units or 0.18% of the combined total. The Leaf, with Nissan’s aggressive lease programs, has been gaining ground for some time. Of course, in January GM announced the next generation Volt with more electric range, better gas mileage, better acceleration and a fifth seat (ok, ok. 4-1/2 seats). I have to attribute some of the Volt’s sales slowdown with the “new iPhone syndrome.” Some buyers are holding out on the Volt in order to buy the new generation, which will become available later this year (date and price not yet announced). I know this because I have three customers (so far) who want to be notified as soon as the new Volt can be ordered.

Across the board, in February 2015, vehicle sales were slightly higher for the plug-in vehicles I track, compared to the previous month, with the exception of the Prius Plug-in. It is my contention that the Prius is done. Stick a fork in it. The electric range is woefully deficient, when compared to the Volt and Leaf. All the newbies, who thought all plug-ins are the same, have been cleared out. I expect most Prius buyers to go back to the non-plug version, as the advantage of the plug-in version is insufficient to seduce buyers.

I have dropped the Corvette Stingray from the tracking. It was originally included to show that plug-in vehicles were being sold (at least some of them) at the same volume as a popular gasoline-powered car. I think the case is closed on that. Finally, the upper graph is now only showing the previous 24 months’ sales. It was just getting way too cluttered!

Overall, February’s sales looked like this:

• Chevy Volt: Up 28% (693 vs. 542 – the last 2 months have been the worst Volt sales since they were first introduced)
• Nissan Leaf: Up 12% (1,198 vs. 1,070)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 1% (397 vs. 401)
• Cadillac ELR: UP 38% (127 vs. 92)
• BMW i3: UP 63% (1,089 vs. 670) Super Bowl ad paying off???
• BMW i8: UP 33% (113 vs. 85)
• Ford Fusion Energi: UP 42% (603 vs. 426)
• Ford C-Max Energi: UP 26% (498 vs. 395)

The price of gasoline has risen for the first time in eight months, from an average of $2.07 in January to $2.26 in February (a 9% increase).

Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, looked like this:

• Chevy Volt: DOWN 43% (693 vs. 1,210)
• Nissan Leaf: DOWN 16% (1,198 vs. 1,425)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 62% (397 vs. 1,041)
• Cadillac ELR: UP 119% (127 vs. 58) **Don’t get too excited: very small numbers.
• BMW i3: (did not exist a year ago)
• BMW i8: (did not exist a year ago)
• Ford Fusion Energi: DOWN 23% (603 vs. 779)
• Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 10% (397 vs. 1,041)

In the lower graph,you can really see the downturn in the Plug-in Prius’ sales (purple curve). Its sales have now fallen below the Leaf’s, at the same point, since their respective introduction. The importance of this? At that point in the Leaf’s history, it had been struggling under a barrage of news stories about permanent loss of battery capacity in hot climes. This was not a period, when the Leaf was selling like it is today. The two Fords, both plagued by short electric range, like the Prius, now have adoption curves tracking below the Leaf, back when the Leaf was really struggling. This does not bode well for either of them. I think this is a message to manufacturers: Plug-in vehicle buyers are not the newbies we once were. Just sticking an outlet on the car doesn’t do the trick anymore. We’ve become educated and want electric range sufficient to handle our daily commute, not just a small portion of it. If manufacturers want to compete in the brave new world, they can’t just put lipstick on a pig. They have to innovate and give real value or they’re wasting their time (and ours).