Two countries have announced their wish to have only electric vehicles on their roads, in a relatively short timeframe. Those two countries are India and the Netherlands.
A little perspective is needed. These are not the top two countries in vehicle ownership. Believe it or not, San Marino is #1 in vehicles per 1,000 people, at a whopping 1,263 (more than one vehicle per person!). The United States comes in 4th at 809 vehicles per 1,000 people. The Netherlands is #28 at 528 per 1,000 people and India is 160th at only 18 vehicles per 1,000 people . That makes this announcement seem a bit less impressive, but India’s population is over 1.25 BILLION souls, meaning that this decision will impact over 22 MILLION vehicles, although with over 318 million people in the U.S. and its higher percentage of vehicles, that 22 million is only about 9% of the number of vehicles here.
I do not mean to denigrate the efforts of these two nations. I believe their goal is admirable and shows real foresight, although I expect the tipping point to come, on its own.
It reminds me of a comment I saw on Facebook recently. I’m sorry to say I do not remember who posted it:
“I would not want to be the last horse-and-buggy salesperson, holding out against the rise of automobiles.“
What about owners of gasoline-powered cars, in those countries? Will they see their resale value plummet (possibly to zero) as the trend becomes obvious? Will gas stations become more rare, as their customer base declines, making it harder to refuel? Will gas prices rise, due to fewer sales outlets wanting to carry it, or drop precipitously, due to reduced demand? Are these governments going to do anything to alleviate these financial issues or do they believe giving such advanced notice absolves them of responsibility? Will consumers move more quickly into emission-free vehicles, now that the path forward has been declared?
What are your thoughts?
The Netherlands have a goal that’s 9 years away, so unless the market pulls violently in that direction there’s time to plan. We also have those CARB standards with a distant deadline, with stepped targets along the way. The buggy-whip manufacturers will have time to convert their businesses or develop sidelines.
One thing they don’t have is an entrenched petroleum lobby like we do. The Koch Brothers are planning a huge spend on anti-EV media, trying to hold back the tide. and there are doubtless others who will do the same. Plus the army of lobbyists chasing after our elected representatives will certainly have an effect.
Somehow, I can’t feel much pity for those companies who made billions selling us hydrocarbons, and poisoned our air and our brans with tetraethyl lead in the years before catalytic converters.
Lord knows India could use the help due to their smog issues.