July 2018 Sales Numbers

July 2018.

A month that will live in infamy!

As mentioned last month, Tesla Motors has already exceeded the 200,000 vehicle limit, which will start the end of Tesla customers’ access to the $7,500 Federal Income Tax Credit. General Motors, which had fallen to second place in total plug-in vehicle sales in the U.S., now appears to be on a path to hit the 200,000th plug in, around December of this year. That should keep the full $7,500 tax credit available to General Motors customers, until March 31st, 2019.Another ticking time bomb (for residents of Texas, at least) is the number of plug-in vehicle grants that have been handed out. These grants are $2,500 for those who lease or purchase a plug-in vehicle that will remain in Texas. The limit was set at $5M, or 2,000 grants. The image to the left, shows where we stand.

My dealership’s plug-in vehicle inventory is rebounding from an incredibly low level. In July, we had one Volt remaining and no Bolt EV’s. We have orders for 33 Volts and 12 of those have arrived, just as August got started. We traded vehicles with another dealer, to obtain a Bolt EV, both for inventory and to have one to demonstrate. Ordering has begun for the 2019 model year of both Bolt EV and Volt, and I have several of each on order for inventory as well as customer orders. However, due to low inventory, and overall slow car sales, I did not sell a single plug-in vehicle, in the month of July 2018.

Overall plug-in vehicle sales, fueled by new models and new manufacturers entering the field, are accelerating to the goal of one million plug-in vehicles in the U.S. Just six weeks ago, my projection graph showed the 1,000,000 mark occurring in late December. With one month’s new data, it now appears the U.S. will achieve that goal in November! (see below) It also appears the U.S. will have its first year that plug-in sales will exceed 250,000 in a single year. Of course, if the Model 3 continues to fulfill orders, at the pace of this last month…who knows how high the numbers can go?In July 2018, the plug-in vehicle sales I track were down, except for the Tesla Model 3 & Bolt EV and the Volt. The Tesla Model 3 increased dramatically, with 14,250 sold in July. (notice the high purple line, in the chart below) I wasn’t kidding about dramatic! To give a little perspective, the best month ever, for the other vehicles I track (top 4 models) were: Bolt EV (3,227 units), Volt (3,691 units), Model X (3,875 units) and Model S (5,850 units). The Model 3 just sold 244% of the best month the Model S has ever had.In the lower chart (above), sales of the Model 3, after only 13 months, now have a slope much steeper than the adoption curve of the original Prius after it had been on the market for years! The newer, plug-in Prius continues to rebound and now tracks at an adoption rate slightly superior to the Volt, Model S and Leaf.  In the chart above, we see the Bolt EV adoption curve, tracking at a lower growth rate than that at which it began. It now appears similar to the Model S and Volt adoption curves, albeit with a better start out of the gate. This decrease is not due to a lack of consumer interest, but rather a lack of inventory at dealerships.

Here are the July 2018 sales figures, compared to the previous month:

• Chevy Volt: UP 10% (1,475 vs. 1,336) **estimated
• Chevy Bolt EV: UP 8% (1,175 vs. 1,083) **estimated
• Nissan Leaf: DOWN 16% (1,149 vs. 1,367)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 11% (1,984 vs, 2,237)
• Tesla Model S: DOWN 56% (1,200 vs. 2,750) **estimated
• Tesla Model X: DOWN 48% (1,325 vs. 2,550) **estimated
• BMW i3: DOWN 20% (464 vs. 580)
• Ford Fusion Energi: DOWN 14% (522 vs. 604)
• Honda Clarity BEV & PHEV: DOWN 1% (1,560 vs. 1,571)
• Tesla Model 3: UP 141% (14,250 vs. 5,902)

In July, the average price of gasoline rose shakily, from $2.85 per gallon, at the start of the month, to $2.89 on the 12th, followed by a very steep dive. The dive bottomed out on July 22nd, at $2.83 per gallon. Price rose from there, until the 29th, when it began falling sharply again, ending at $2.87 at the end of the month. The price of gasoline has risen $1.12 per gallon, from its low of $1.70, in mid-February 2016. That’s an increase of 69% in 2 1/2 years.

My vehicle sales, in July 2018, were dismal for July. It was only half the number of units of my worst July ever, back in 2014 (my first full year in auto sales). As Forrest Gump would say, “and that’s all I’m going to say about that.”My three July 2018 sales were comprised of a Tahoe, a Spark and a Colorado.In the chart below, the purple bars (2018 plug-in sales), when compared to the red bars just below them, showed strong plug-in sales, through the first three months of 2018. In July, with traffic at one of the lowest levels I’ve ever seen, no Bolt EVs in stock and only a single Volt, my plug-in sales were zero.Plug-in sales, compared to the same month a year ago, were split. The winners were the Tesla Model 3 and Honda Clarity and the Prius plug-in:

• Chevy Volt: DOWN 3% (1,475 vs. 1,518)
• Chevy Bolt EV: DOWN 40% (1,175 vs. 1,971) **not available nationwide in July 2017
• Nissan Leaf: DOWN 10% (1,149 vs. 1,283)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: UP 21% (1,984 vs. 1,645)
• Tesla Model S: DOWN 16% (1,200 vs. 1,425)
• Tesla Model X: DOWN 20% (1,325 vs. 1,650)
• BMW i3: DOWN 67% (464 vs. 1,425)
• Ford Fusion Energi: DOWN 26% (522 vs. 703)
• Honda Clarity BEV & PHEV: UP 4,488% (1,560 vs. 34) **Clarity debuted in July 2017
• Tesla Model 3: UP 47,400% (14,250 vs. 30) **Model 3 debuted in July 2017

One note on the Clarity & Model 3: July 2018 was compared with the very first month of these vehicles’ availability, so the percentages are more skewed than if they had a “normal” month’s volume to compare to.

On a final note, a comment on Facebook asked me to comment on where I obtain my sales figures. I use several sources, including InsideEVs, GoodCarBadCar, CarSalesBase and hybridCars.