Gas prices rise. EV sales drop. Wait? What?!?!?
In June 2015, the plug-in market gave up a portion of last month’s gains. So far, every plug-in except the BMW i8 showed a drop in sales, albeit not so much as to return to April’s numbers. One exception to that, was the BMW i8, which had a loss of one vehicle, compared to April (137 vs. 138). Here’s how it all shook out:
- Chevy Volt: DOWN 24% (1,225 vs. 1,618)
- Nissan Leaf: DOWN 1% (2,074 vs. 2,104)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 36% (464 vs. 727)
- Cadillac ELR: DOWN 47% (62 vs. 116)
- BMW i3: DOWN 33% (551 vs. 818)
- BMW i8: UP 17% (137 vs. 117)
- Ford Fusion Energi: DOWN 26% (727 vs. 986)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 7% (715 vs. 553)
The price of gasoline continued to rise for another month, from an average of $2.69 in May to $2.78 in June (another 8% increase). Although the Chevy Volt’s sales dropped in June, from the previous month, sales remained in the 1,000+ volume level. The Nissan Leaf once again was top dog, remaining above 2,000 units for the second month in a row. June sales volume was only 1% lower than in May. June’s sales figures pushed the Leaf even further in front of the Volt, for all-time sales since inception. The Leaf now leads the Volt by 3,430 units, or 4%. The Plug-in Prius saw a huge drop of 36%, down to a monthly total of 464. The Cadillac, suffered the largest percentage drop, but in its 19th month of availability, its sales numbers have never been above 200 in a single month. The BMW i3 had a significant decrease from the previous month: 33%! Ford’s numbers on the Fusion Energi and the C-Max Energi were both down. In the lower graph (adoption rate), I believe we’re seeing the public’s enlightenment. Of the five vehicles with adoption rates below the Nissan Leaf (at a very bad time for Leaf adoption): The C-Max Energi, Fusion Energi, the ELR, the plug-in Prius and the i8, I believe we’ll never see long-term success of any of these, except for the i8. As a statement of what can be done with plug-in electric vehicles, the i8 serves its purpose. It shows BMW knows how to make a uncompromising plug-in vehicle. The others, in my opinion, are doomed by insufficient battery pack size and the inability of the vehicle to run purely electrically, in a manner like the Volt.
Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, looked like this:
- Chevy Volt: DOWN 31% (1,225 vs. 1,777) *the 2016 Volt cannot get here soon enough for me!
- Nissan Leaf: DOWN 12% (2,074 vs. 2,347)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 70% (464 vs. 1,571)
- Cadillac ELR: DOWN 36% (62 vs. 97)
- BMW i3: UP 54% (551 vs. 358)
- BMW i8: (did not exist a year ago)
- Ford Fusion Energi: DOWN 63% (727 vs. 1,939)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 32% (667 vs. 988)
There will be some winners and losers, no doubt.
The winner is ‘the category.’ How about a share of total cumulative sales of these plus-in by month. Its up, up, up, I suspect.
That is the winning story in my eyes.
It’s only me here, so the time I have to compile figures is limited. Compared to non-plug-in vehicles, the percentage is incredibly low (less than 1%, last I heard). With new models on the horizon, I’d wager it’s even lower now. That’s one reason I have the lower graph: To compare with a car that has become ubiquitous, the original Prius.
Would GM have done better by first producing an SUV/CUV like the Bolt instead of the Volt sedan? Don’t SUVs/CUVs outsell sedans?
Bob Lutz, former Co-Chairman of General Motors has said the same thing, which is probably why he’s at Via Motors now.
In Norway BEV/PHEV registrations exceed 20% market share.
Why? Because in Norway there is no car tax or VAT on electric cars. Charging stations are free to use.
Here are a few more ideas:
A nationwide network of fast recharging stations along interstate highways.
A $7500 sales rebate instead of a $7500 tax credit.
An additional $2500 “Cash for Clunkers” type rebate for owners of vehicles that get less than 30 mpg.
In other words, it takes political leadership and governmental incentives to achieve rapid adoption of this new technology.
I’ve been an advocate of point-of-sale rebates, instead of tax credits or mail-in rebates for quite some time now. My most recent post about this is here: https://www.theev-angelist.com/?p=3049
I’m almost tempted to say we should begin phasing out the federal income tax incentive (announcing this VERY publicly). Nothing makes people react like thinking they’re about to lose out on a good deal. Plug-in vehicles have come down in price. There is no doubt about their superiority to ICE vehicles. Tempted…but not there yet…
I like the idea of nationwide free charging stations too. It would be much cheaper than building the interstate highways, and the project would create jobs. I wonder what it would cost? A month or two of war in Iraq or Afghanistan?
Elon Musk evidently anticipates that the market is on the verge of the rapid adoption of plug-in vehicles in addition to at home storage of rooftop solar. Home builders need to start building and offering homes that come with “no electric bills, no gas bills, and no gasoline bills (if you provide your own EV).”
“Gigafactory to be biggest building on Earth? Tesla buys additional 1,200 acres, could make it twice as big as original plans”
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/tesla-buys-additional-1200-acres-next-gigafactory-could-make-it-twice-big-original-plans-would-be-largest-building-earth.html
All this could happen much faster if we had aggressive political leadership in favor of solar and plug-in vehicles, but, instead, we have politicians who are actively fighting to continue to pollute our air and water through the use of increasingly high cost fossil fuels.