Still awaiting Ford’s numbers, but I couldn’t wait any more:
Plug-in vehicle sales, compared to the previous month, looked like this:
- Chevy Volt: down 7% (1,336 vs.1,439)
- Nissan Leaf: slightly up by 4% (2,687 vs. 2,589) **outsold Volt by more than 2-to-1
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: down 6% (451 vs. 479)
- Cadillac ELR: slightly up by 2% (155 vs. 152)
- BMW i3: DOWN 30% (816 vs. 1,159)
- BMW i8: DOWN 38% (126 vs. 204)
- Ford Fusion Energi: up 10% (752 vs. 686)
- Ford C-Max Energi: No change (644 vs. 644)
- Chevy Corvette Stingray: DOWN 20% (2,378 vs. 2,959)
November sales were slow out of the gate, but as Black Friday approached, they picked up steadily. Black Friday and the following Saturday were very busy, with lots of people off work for the holiday. Here in Texas, the weather was spectacular, so everyone was out after a short-lived freeze the week before.
I mentioned last month that the Leaf’s total US sales, could surpass the Volt’s by March or April of next year. You can really see that in the graph. In fact, in two of the last three months, the Leave has outsold the Volt by a factor of two-to-one. If this keeps up, my prediction could prove to be overly conservative. The Leaf has had a great advertising campaign, touting its owners’ fuel savings. Coupled with great leasing incentives, the Leaf is taking off. Are you hearing this GM??? I have to believe that GM is waiting for the 2016 Volt unveil in January to kick off an advertising campaign. I have no evidence of this, other than GM’s activity on social media, teasing with partial views of the new Volt design. We shall see…
I believe the ELR’s sales are being hurt by the Volt teasers. The ELR is based on the current Volt drivetrain. Anyone thinking about spending as much as it costs to get an ELR is probably doing their due diligence and thinking about it being based on what is about to become the “old design,” versus getting a 2016 Volt (or hoping for an updated ELR). The 2016 ELR (model year 2015 is being skipped, according to a GM source of Edmunds) was supposed to debut at the LA Auto Show last month, but this did not happen. Rumors of why have been floating about the web, but it seems the most plausible reason is that new features are not ready for prime time.
Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, looked like this:
- Chevy Volt: DOWN 30% (1,336 vs. 1,920) .
- Nissan Leaf: UP 34% (2,687 vs. 2,003)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 59% (451 vs. 1,100)
- Cadillac ELR: (did not exist a year ago)
- BMW i3: (did not exist a year ago)
- BMW i8: (did not exist a year ago)
- Ford Fusion Energi: down 14% (752 vs. 870)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 32% (644 vs. 941)
- Chevy Corvette Stingray: down 6% (2,378 vs. 2,527)
Gas prices continue to decline with the drop of about 25 cents per gallon for each of the last two months in a row. I’ve heard a couple conspiracy theories on this: a) OPEC wants to kill the competition from the U.S. aided by fracking. As prices drop, fracking becomes less economically feasible, and b) The popularity of EVs in the media, especially the Tesla Model S and BMW i8, are causing OPEC to start to worry about the value of their assets.
What’s your pet theory for the decline in gasoline prices?
I think it’s the popularity of EVs. They really have taken off and are starting to put a dent in the amount of gasoline we’re using. I buy four gallons every three months is my average so I know if the other 70,000+ Volt drivers out there are anywhere near that it has got to be showing up in the gas/oil companies numbers. So in order to slow the rate of sales of electric and efficient cars they lower the price. It’s easy to manipulate the sales that way. I’m sure you see it happen too: as the price of gas goes up so does the sales of hybrid and electric cars – as the price of gas goes down the people start buying more trucks and SUVs.
No conspiracy. It’s good old supply and demand. When supply goes up and demand doesn’t, the price declines. The surge in U.S. oil production is probably the principal reason for the price decline.
This price decline shouldn’t affect EV sales. The cost to “fill up” an EV with electricity is about equivalent to $1 per gallon of gasoline. Gasoline will NEVER be $1 per gallon again. I doubt it will be ever be $2 per gallon again.
“A billion miles driven by Chevy Volt owners shows they used electric mode 85% of the time. If all new cars were plug-in hybrids in the next few years, oil use would plummet which would completely change the political and business world.”
Change the world! Buy an electric car!
Day before yesterday I saw a Nissan Leaf in the Central Market parking lot.
Yesterday, I saw a Tesla pulling into a parking space in the same lot, and I talked to the owner briefly. He bought it two years ago over the internet, and he hasn’t had one problem with it. Not one.
In months past, I have seen one or two Volts.
If the Central Market parking lot is any gauge, things may be looking up for electric cars.
GM is not advertising the Volt or the ELR because they’re not making any money on either car. IF Volt 2.0 doesn’t meet GM’s profit-margin, expect they won’t be advertising it either.
OPEC’s continued manipulation of the World’s oil supply is NOT consumer-friendly – it’s intended to ensure OPEC remains the controlling body in charge of a dominating supply of easily-refined crude. But, an “e-gallon” in my Volt costs about 88 CENTS! – and I think that’s not likely to be the price of gasoline ever again!
Good post, Buzz!
Surely, profitability has to be a goal of the 2nd generation Volt. I hope the teasers they’ve been releasing are the tip of a new promotional campaign. We’ll see come January!
I hope to god that GM doesn’t start cutting corners and turning out a crappy product in order to boost short term profits as they have done for so many decades. There are still many, many people who won’t buy GM because they were so badly burned in the past.
Here’s an idea. Build a super quality product, earn loyal customers, and wait to profit when the demand for EVs takes off. Tell Wall Street to stuff it in the meantime.
Although the people who got to see the entire 2016 Volt at the LA Auto Show signed non-disclosure agreements, their impressions have made it out into the wild. One comment I saw was that the exact opposite of your fears has happened. The interior of the Volt was far superior to the current model. These people seem very excited and just dying to tell us more but cannot.
Why isn’t the Ford Focus Electric on the list? It doesn’t get much press, does it?
The Focus is the least successful Ford plug-in, with only 1,911 sales so far this year. That’s about 20-25% as many as the two Ford models I do track. The Cadillac ELR and BMW i8 have even lower performance, but I wanted to have several brands represented and both of these have a MUCH higher price tag, so I expected their sales to be lower.