November 2015 Sales Numbers

In November 2015, every plug-in market I track but one, had sales volume lower than the previous month:

• Chevy Volt: DOWN 3% (1,980 vs. 2,035)
• Nissan Leaf: DOWN 15% (1,054 vs. 1,238)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 52% (44 vs. 91) ***last month it was down 58%
• Cadillac ELR: DOWN 18% (67 vs. 82)
• BMW i3: DOWN 27% (723 vs. 986)
• BMW i8: DOWN 21% (118 vs. 149)
• Ford Fusion Energi: UP 11% (944 vs. 849)
• Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 8% (639 vs. 695)

In October, the price of gasoline started around $2.19, then there was a weak increase, to $2.22 over the first week of the past month, then it dropped steadily, until the last day of November, when it hit $2.03 (more on this later).

The redesigned 2016 Chevy Volt had another good month, posting 1,980 units sold, which was a drop of 55 units from October. Volt sales are surprising for one reason: It’s only available in eleven states! Thankfully, the 2017 Volt will be coming soon, with preordering starting this month. In fact, the software for configuring the 2017 Volt is live at the dealerships now (albeit without pricing).

The Nissan Leaf experienced a 15% decrease, compared to the previous month.

The biggest drop in sales was sales of the plug-in Prius. There is a cautionary tale here for auto makers: Adding a plug-in capability is not the answer. Riding on your laurels is not the answer. To compete successfully, in the plug-in vehicle market, you MUST have decent electric range (the original Volt may have luckily -or skillfully- selected the magic number of electric miles at 38, which is enough range for that vast majority of commutes. Those with less range (Prius and the Fords) are crippled from the get-go with poor electric range. Many plug-in hybrid owners are trying to take the logical step of going hybrid, until charging infrastructure build-out increases and charge time is reduced significantly. Obviously, I made my decision of vehicle based on this issues. The Volt and ELR both give hybrid owners the opportunity to be totally electric, since they can run exclusively on electricity, until the battery pack is depleted and the vehicle automatically switches to gasoline. Those vehicles with less electric range and which switch back-and-forth between electricity and gasoline do not give their owners the purely electric experience. The buying public is getting smarter about plug-in vehicles and tacking on a plug worked as a marketing ploy for a short while but that time is over.

The adoption curves, in the lower graph, are a bigger concern to me each month. The Volt and Leaf adoption curves are diverging from the original Prius’ more every month. Heck, the original Prius adoption curve looks like an F-16 taking off by comparison. The depressed price of gasoline is definitely cooling off interest in hybrids and EVs. Prices for crude distillates have dropped precipitously, even though strategic reserves for many countries are buying like crazy to fill to their storage capacity, while prices are low.

The BMW i3 dropped 27% from the previous month, even though there were low cost leases available.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Working inside a dealership, I’ve witnessed November traffic and it was abysmal. There were days when almost no one shopped for a car! It seems between Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, etc. people have other things on their minds than getting a new car. However, the $7,500 tax credit makes December the best month to get an EV, since the buyer can apply for the income tax credit very soon after getting their plug-in vehicle. I’m hopeful for a spike in sales in December.

Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, were almost all in decline, with the exception of the Volt. There were great deals on existing inventory and the new 2016, on which many Volt owners were waiting, has arrived. In fact, one customer of mine went to California to get one, but GM’s incentives were only good for those living in the 11 CARB states! He said there were very few in stock as they were selling at a brisk pace.

• Chevy Volt: UP 48% (1,980 vs. 1,336)
• Nissan Leaf: DOWN 61% (1,054 vs. 2,687)
• Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 90% (44 vs. 451) ***last month it was down 81%
• Cadillac ELR: DOWN 57% (67 vs. 155)
• BMW i3: DOWN 11% (723 vs. 816)
• BMW i8: DOWN 6% (118 vs. 126)
• Ford Fusion Energi: UP 26% (944 vs. 752)
• Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 1% (639 vs. 644)