In October 2015, the plug-in market continued the dive of the previous month, with three exceptions, one borderline at that:
- Chevy Volt: UP 114% (2,035 vs. 949)
- Nissan Leaf: DOWN 1% (1,238 vs. 1,247)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 58% (91 vs. 216)
- Cadillac ELR: UP 128% (82 vs. 36)
- BMW i3: DOWN 43% (986 vs. 1,720) ***Last month’s sales may have been a fluke
- BMW i8: DOWN 18% (149 vs. 182)
- Ford Fusion Energi: UP 5% (849 vs. 808)
- Ford C-Max Energi: DOWN 3% (695 vs. 719)
The price of gasoline started a weak increase over the first week of the past month, then dropped steadily, until the last day of October. The 2016 Chevy Volt began arriving at dealerships in the eleven CARB states and really seems to have boosted Volt sales. Coupled with this were astounding purchase and lease incentives for the 2015 Volt, which I am sure contributed to quite a few of those moving as well. I ended up buying a 2015 myself. The result was a 114% increase in Volt sales, when compared to September, and the best monthly number since August 2014 and before that, the next previous month of higher sales goes back to December 2013! This gives me optimism about the 2017 Volt, which will start arriving in March/April 2016. The Nissan Leaf experienced only a 1% decrease, compared to the previous month.
The adoption curves, in the lower graph, are starting to look frightening. The Volt and Leaf adoption curves are diverging from the original Prius’ more every month. Does this portend the end of plug-in vehicles? Obviously, I don’t think so, but the trend is undeniable. Hopefully, the new 2016 & 2017 Volts will start the curves converging once again. There are other new vehicles that have been announced that could help, like a redesigned Nissan Leaf. That being said, the original Prius sold a total of 154,919 units by the end of its 59th month of availability. Compare that to the Leaf’s 87,462 (56% of Prius adoption) or the Volt’s 84,656 (55% of Prius adoption) and you’ll get a feel for what’s ailing me.
The Plug-in Prius showed another significant monthly decrease in sales, falling to its lowest monthly sales volume EVER, AGAIN. Stick a fork in the Plug-in Prius. It’s done.
The Cadillac ELR rebounded with the best month in sales, since May 2015, but it’s still the bottom performer, with sales lower than the Prius. The BMW i3 seemed to return to more typical volumes, which saw monthly sales spring up 117% in September, only to drop 43% in October. The i8’s sales dropped by 18% from the previous month’s sales, which had been a decline from the month before that.
Definitely, I think low gas prices are a hindrance to market visibility and therefore, sales. However, from my perspective, seeing people experience electric drive for the first time, it appears the number one motivation to buying a plug-in vehicle is how fun it is to drive.
Sales, compared to the same month a year ago, are almost all down, and down a lot, with the exception being the Volt and the two Fords I track.
- Chevy Volt: UP 41% (2,035 vs. 1,439)
- Nissan Leaf: DOWN 52% (1,238 vs. 2,589)
- Plug-in Toyota Prius: DOWN 81% (91 vs. 479)
- Cadillac ELR: DOWN 46% (82 vs. 152)
- BMW i3: DOWN 15% (986 vs. 1,159)
- BMW i8: DOWN 27% (149 vs. 204)
- Ford Fusion Energi: UP 24% (849 vs. 686)
- Ford C-Max Energi: UP 8% (695 vs. 644)
It would be interesting to see gas price trends relative to the Prius and Volt/Leaf in that 2nd chart.
Unfortunately, the bottom chart is not from a single time. It starts each car adoption curve at the moment of the vehicle’s introduction. Due to this, the month #1 is December 2010, when the Volt and Leaf were introduced but it is also June 2000 for the original Prius. Due to this, the bottom chart cannot track the price of gasoline.
The tax credit needs to be a rebate. The effect on the Treasury is the same except more people would use the rebate.
A more mature used market would get more plug-ins on the road and would probably drive up the interest in the new car plug-in market.
I agree completely. See https://www.theev-angelist.com/?p=3049
Every gallon of gas you buy supports terrorism. Buy a plug-in car.
Put that on a bumper sticker.
“Saudi Arabia remains a critical financial support base for al-Qa’ida, the Taliban, LeT [Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pakistan] and other terrorist groups.”
December 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a cable released by Wikileaks
Unfortunately, most people don’t react well when told their actions are a problem. They become defensive and look for ways to justify their current behavior. I believe if we really hammer the fun, economy and low cost of operating a plug-in vehicle, it’ll be more effective.
The allies will bomb the oil fields controlled by ISIS, and gas prices should shoot up afterwards. That will be a good time to promote the economy of plug-in cars.
“Fill up” a plug-in car for the equivalent of about a dollar a gallon!
I read recently, that there’s a large gathering of oil tankers off the Texas Gulf coast, South of Galveston. They are sitting there, full of oil, because even China’s oil storage is at capacity. OPEC nations are not cutting back production. Iran’s sanctions are being lifted and they’re hurting for cash. It would take a lot of refineries, storage tanks and wellheads to move the price of oil up much.